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Growth scare is becoming the reality

Fears of a potential U.S. economic recession are intensifying among consumers and CFOs, because growth scare is becoming the reality, no matter if you believe it.

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Does the outlook for Nvidia still stay intact?
The emergence of China’s DeepSeek has scared Nvidia investors when it was released in January. Many AI observers said that DeepSeek’s model, which reportedly required fewer chips than models made in the U.S., threatened Nvidia’s business.
The Fed is backed into a corner materially
To be honest, the Fed is in an awkward situation when they make any monetary policy at this time around. Its dual mandates which are full employment and price stability catch the Fed in the middle.
Unsettled trade policy has changed the outlook of market
Since the beginning of 2025, global macroeconomic environment is way more complicated. US economic data is flashing red signal at this time around, despite keeping 2.3% growth rate and 4.1% unemployment rate for Q4.
US wealth effect is shrinking
The wealth effect had been keeping along with the long term upward trend of US equity market before the turbulence in Feb. Right now it seems that the trend is reversing based on the sharp decline of market since Feb18 given multiple uncertainties lingering, which is disrupting the confidence of investors substantially.
What drives Tesla shares' dramatic sell-off？
Tesla has been on a roller coaster ride since Musk went to Washington, D.C., to take on a major role in the second Trump White House, which of heading Trump’s advisory DOGE, which is engaged in a broad, controversial effort to reduce federal government spending and slash employee headcount at dozens of agencies.
The destructive trade policy has disrupted the market
The bearish sentiment is pervading the Wall Street right now, when the S&P 500 follows the Nasdaq into correction territory. After Thursday’s sell-off, the S&P 500 has joined the Nasdaq Composite in correction territory, which is typically taken to mean a decline of 10% or more from a recent high.
A narrative of stagflation is prevailing
Contrary to what many believe, investment research firm BCA Research sees that the economy is on the brink of a stagflation, given the weak economic data, dismal consumer spending as well as slower job growth. Ultimately the economy will tip into stagflation which is high inflation and slow growth.
China is trying to make a meaningful policy shift
Facing multiple headwinds both from internal and external, China is trying to make a meaningful policy shift to boost embattled economic growth by announcing plans to raise its fiscal deficit to “around 4%” of gross domestic product, which is a rare increase that marks a significant shift in policy.
China acknowledges a significant softening in domestic demand
China has been under deflationary pressure with nominal GDP growing slower than real GDP for the seventh straight quarter in the final quarter of 2024. Consumer prices climbed just 0.2% in 2024 and 2023, while producer prices have declined for over two years.
American exceptionalism are facing challenges
Right now this kind of notion is facing challenges given stagflation fears bubble up as Trump tariffs take effect and economy is slowing down. Also a growth scare in the economy has accompanied worries over a resurgence in inflation, in turn potentially rekindling an ugly condition that the U.S. has not seen in 50 years.
What is American Exceptionalism?
The narrative of ''American Exceptionalism" has been the core logic in global macro markets over the last several years, which bases on the outperformance of U.S. economy relative to the EU as well as the advantages in tech and policy flexibility.
Global trade war is looming again
Trade tentions around the globe have been mounting this year, especially after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election overwhelmingly, who floats the ideas that the U.S. will impose tariffs on almost all the imports, no matter where they come from.
Tech rally has driven capital to re-allocate into China
DeepSeek’s breakthrough in artificial intelligence has boosted investor sentiment around Chinese stocks, with a gauge of the country’s onshore as well as offshore shares soaring over 26% since its January low.
Private sector-the real pillar of Chinese economy
Private economy which has ever been dismissed is back into spotlight again, thanking to the emergence of Deepseek which shocked the entire AI world, which has made the central government re-recognize the significant role that the private sector has played in Chinese economy.
China steps efforts to adjust foreign investment policy
Recently the investment community has been keeping eyes on the emergence of China’s DeepSeek, which burst out of obscurity and into the center of the tech universe.
AI arm race is heating up
More than two years after ChatGPT's debut, generative AI continues to make astounding advances at breakneck speed. The technology that powers all-purpose chatbots is transforming many aspects of life with its ability to spit out high-quality text, images or video, or carry out complex tasks.
Alibaba--the transformational bellwether for AI
It is not an overstatement to say that Alibaba will be the transformational bellwether for AI. The cooperation with Apple is intensifying Alibaba's leading position in AI industry
Europe wants to be part of the AI race
Europe has been lagging in the arm race of AI significantly, where has long been seen by its critics as a place that has regulated the tech industry too heavily to the detriment of innovation.
The issue of data security raises questions about DeepSeek
Recently the investment community has been keeping eyes on the emergence of China’s DeepSeek, which burst out of obscurity and into the center of the tech universe.
A focus on stopping the competition can’t keep pace with innovation
U.S. has been sparing no effort to curb the AI development of China, including AI diffusion rules issued by President Biden to “regulate the global diffusion” of AI chips and models, which has been described to create a centrally planned global computing economy.
China’s deflation will persist significantly
For 2024, CPI rose 0.2%, in line with the previous year’s pace and well below the official target of around 3% for last year, suggesting inflation missed annual targets for the 13th straight year.
Can AI-powered robots solve a global labor shortage?
AI-powered robots are emerging across Silicon Valley. Mega companies such as Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft and Nvidia have poured amount of money into what are known as “humanoid” robots.
Alibaba bets on AI
Alibaba's partnership with Apple is changing its underlying valuation logic significantly. AI technology hopefully will be the important engine for Alibaba's growth for the foreseeable future.
Alibaba will be the biggest winner for AI in China
The cooperation between Apple and Alibaba is also a self rescue action to solve their respective difficulties. Based on this, the market responded to the news quite positively.
China Schedules Meeting Expected To Reveal Fiscal Stimulus
China will hold a highly anticipated meeting to reveal fiscal stimulus, which may include more monetary policy to support embattled property market as well as consumption.
Shoring Up Struggling Local Governmnet Or Focusing On Boosting Consumption?
It is not an overstatement to say that Chinese economy is on the edge of an abyss. Although Chinese governmnet has announced some economic stimulus since September, but that is far enough to support embattled economy.
China’s Electric Car Race Is Heating Up
Electric car race is heating up in China, Chinese electric car companies that are already engaged in intense price war are turning up heat on another front, which is chip-powered tech features.
What Is The Sticking Point For Chinese Economy?
Following a lackluster economic recovery last year from the pandemic, China as the world's second-largest economy continues to face significant economic headwinds due to a continuous decline in the real estate market and weak consumer confidence.
DeepSeek Shocked The AI World
China’s DeepSeek, which burst out of obscurity and into the center of the tech universe has rattled the U.S.-led AI ecosystem with its latest model, shaving hundreds of billions in chip leader Nvidia’s market cap.
Consumption--the real catalyst of Chinese economic recovery
China’s economic challenges have given rise to deflationary pressures that present a global concern and are likely to accelerate in the coming quarters. The stimulative measures are far less sufficient to push the economic recovery
Calibrate The Trajectory Of Chinese Economy
Facing the headwinds in economic development, Chinese govenment should step up the efforts to pivot toward increasing household income and stimulating the consumption, rather than continuing to rely on the traditional growth engines such as investment and export.
Where will Chinese economy be headed?
While Western economies emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic with elevated inflation amid constrained supply and resurgent demand, China has not experienced the same dynamics since ending its strict zero-Covid measures
Chinese Economy Is At A Low Ebb
Chinese economy is at a low ebb in the post-pandemic. The uncertain lags and magnitudes associated with the fiscal and monetary policy are having a negative impact on the economy.
Chinese Government Can Ill Afford To Be Wrong
Deteriorating Chinese economic fundamentals have produced deflationary pressures that are already moderating inflation both in China and in the global markets served by Chinese goods.
How Can China Ride-Hailing Company Didi Walk Through The Dilemma
China ride-hailing giant Didi, known as "China Uber" has achieved double-digit revenue growth for the fifth consecutive quarter and is reportedly considering going public in Hongkong.
American exceptionalism is reversing abruptly
American exceptionalism represents a sort of notion that American has unique advantages in terms of economy, politics and dollar assets which has made America outperform the rest of the world continuously.
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