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The negative ripple effect from full-blown trade war is self-evident, not only the massive and eye-popping sell-off for global financial markets, but the aggressive and constantly changing trade policy from Washington could be doing long-term damage to the financial standing of the US.
The big story this year is that there is a rotation out of US and it is becoming vicious. Wall Street pros are increasingly concerned about the moves in the bond and currency markets. Treasury and dollar which typically are linchpin safe assets benefit from safe environment, a function of US historical financial strength.
Right now dollar assets are facing inflection point, falling bond prices pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly above 4.5%, up from 3.99% just a week prior, also the ICE U.S. Dollar Index hit its lowest level in three years.
Everything is abruptly changing after President Trump took office. The aggressive and flip-flopping trade policy has shaken the confidence of the closest allies of US, who no longer regard US as trustable partner. Markets are very confidence-driven. The perception that foreign investors are trying to step away from Treasury market can trigger pretty significant panic.
A massive wave of selling which was the heaviest for decades hit U.S. government debt in Asia on Wednesday. In fact, Japan has been intentionally selling its U.S. Treasury holdings in retaliation against tariffs levied by President Trump. And the Treasury sell-off was definitely the key factor that led Trump to announce a 90-day pause on his “reciprocal” tariff plan. It seems that the market is re-assessing the structural attractiveness of the dollar as world's global reserve currency and is undergoing a process of rapid de-dollarization. The fear alone is enough to move the market, expecting more foreign investors will be dumping Treasurys as their retaliatory moves, which is just US worries about the most.Complete digital access to quality Glebors financial topic with expert analysis from industry leaders.
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