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If characterize the state of global financial markets accurately for 2026, that is global markets will enter a crucial transitional period of "policy pivot and profit diffusion". Multiple factors including the Fed's rate cut, the application of AI technology as well as the US midterm elections will have big impact on the market. The market has shifted from the era of "general index rise" to the era of "selected assets", with active management capabilities and sector rotation rhythms becoming the key points of returns.
Gold can be definitely regarded as a core allocation with high certainty. Goldman Sachs predicts that the gold price will reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of the year (an increase of 14%), which is not only supported by the structural support of global central banks' average monthly purchase of 70 tons of gold, but benefits from the capital return driven by the Fed's rate cut. There is still more room for private capital to add gold as asset allocation.
The US stock market will be showing a zigzag upward trend. UBS and Goldman Sachs respectively predict that the S&P 500 index will reach 7,900 and 7,500 points by the end of 2026. The market breadth continues to expand, and the profit growth potential of non-AI sectors is prominent. A pullback will be a good opportunity for investors to position. In terms of sector allocation, institutions suggest shifting from AI to cyclical stocks such as industry and real estate. The valuation recovery of regional banks and consumer sectors should be paying attention to by the investors.
The global bond markets will show a significant and extreme differentiation. Institutions generally avoid long-term US Treasuries and Japanese government bonds, instead focusing on three major areas: local currency bonds of emerging markets (such as Brazil and South Africa), mortgage-backed securities of US institutions with implicit government guarantees, as well as high-yield hard currency bonds of countries like India and Mexico, which are both with safe and profitable nature.
Asian stock markets are set to brace for a synchronized upward trend. Nomura is very bullish on the MSCI China Index to 93 points (corresponding to a 10% return), focusing on cyclical lagging stocks such as technology growth stocks, consumer appliances, and companies with net cash. India, South Korea and Indonesia are all highly favored. India has become a regional highlight thanks to its dual-wheel driven economic advantage, while Mexico has benefited from the dividends of supply chain restructuring.
In terms of the risk investors should watch out closely mainly includes the fluctuations from the US midterm elections, the hidden dangers of AI financing defaults, and the differentiation in emerging markets. In terms of allocation strategies, conservative investors should focus on medium and short-term bonds and high-dividend stocks, emphasizing a balanced allocation of stocks and bonds, and aggressive investors can increase the proportion of US stocks and technology assets. All types of portfolios must strictly adhere to the principle of diversified allocation, avoiding excessive concentration in a single track and leveraged operations.Complete digital access to quality Glebors financial topic with expert analysis from industry leaders.
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