The world is currently in the most intense period of fragmentation since the end of the Cold War: geopolitical conflicts are becoming normalized, deglobalization is accelerating, populist ideologies are on the rise, regulatory systems are experiencing unordered fluctuations, and the rule of law consensus is steadily eroding. Coupled with the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence on the global labor market, the global middle class is facing an unprecedented systemic survival crisis.

As the "ballast stone" of social stability and the core engine of economic growth, the shrinkage and decline of the middle class have become a global trend, and the strategies it adopts to respond will directly shape the future trajectory of the global economic landscape and social order.

Fragmentation Impact: The Systemic Dilemma of the Middle Class

Confronted with these multiple shocks, the global middle class is grappling with four key pressures: stagnant incomes, high costs, job losses, and asset depreciation. Marked by distinct globality and structural characteristics, this trend has emerged as a common challenge across national borders.

Geopolitics and deglobalization have profoundly reshaped the global economic fundamentals: trade protectionism is on the rise, the global industrial chain is rapidly fragmenting into regional blocs, and sharp fluctuations in energy and food prices have driven up global inflation and slowed economic growth. Data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shows that the average annual growth rate of real income for global middle-class households between 2020 and 2025 is less than 0.5%, a significant drop from the 2.1% average recorded between 2000 and 2019. Meanwhile, the surge in populism and anti-legalization sentiments has heightened policy uncertainty worldwide, leading to reduced corporate investment and weakened job market stability. This has undermined the traditional "stable career + steady salary" model that has long sustained the middle class — a model that has now completely collapsed.

The AI technological revolution is specifically targeting middle-class jobs: unlike the industrial era, which primarily displaced blue-collar workers, artificial intelligence is systematically encroaching on core professional fields dominated by the middle class — over 40% of white-collar roles, including accounting, legal work, basic financial analysis, copywriting, and administrative support, have already been replaced by AI. Research by Deloitte suggests that 50% of accounting jobs in the United States and 30% of small and medium-sized enterprise management positions in Japan will be fully automated by AI within five years. More critically, middle-class workers over 35 face high unemployment risk due to rigid skill sets and high retraining costs, with the global "35-year-old crisis" evolving from a workplace trend to a systemic social issue.

Beyond pressures on income and employment, soaring living costs and asset depreciation have created a double squeeze: housing, education, and healthcare costs in major global cities continue to climb. Among OECD countries, housing expenses now account for 35% of middle-class household spending, up from 20% in 2000, while education and healthcare combined make up over 40%, significantly reducing disposable income. At the same time, high-leverage home purchases and volatile equity markets have weakened middle-class balance sheets. Data from the Pew Research Center shows that the asset-liability ratio of middle-class households in the United States has risen from 80% in 2008 to 120% in 2025, increasing the risk of debt default and further straining middle-class households.